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Veteran
Posts: 275
 
| The IEA has just produced its latest World Energy Outlook. They look at 3 scenarios for energy usage, "business as usual" (i.e. no change from current policies), "new policies" (assuming countries meet the commitments they made at Copenhagen) and "450" (more aggressive policies adopted in order to meet the target peak of 450 ppm for CO2 - and a maximum increase in temp of 2 deg C). The whole thing is available at http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/ (at a price - but you can download the executive summary). A few interesting things - one is that if governments simply removed existing subsidies for fossil fuel, they would reduce global demand by 5%, which would be a good start!
Another key point is that the IEA expect crude oil output to plateau at 68 - 69 mb/d, but never to regain its peak of 70 mb/d (in 2006). On the other hand, they expect unconventional oil output to increase rapidly. They do not anticipate peak oil (including both conventional and unconventional output) before 2035 under the "new policies" scenario; under the 450 scenario, peak oil will arise before 2020, but interestingly the peak will be caused by falling demand, not production limits. "Peak oil" is becoming a more and more complicated concept! |
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Extreme Veteran
Posts: 319
| Meanwhile the build up to the Cancun Summit begins with expectations down on last year's Copenhagen Summit, particularly with a whole stack of new climate change deniers elected in America. See http://www.care2.com/causes/environment/blog/weekly-mulch-for-cancu...
Looks like its down to us to do something about the planet from the bottom up as the Transition Movement is showing can be done. |
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Veteran
Posts: 214
| I've been wanting to comment on the IEA 2010 WEO here ever since it came out but haven't made the time. I've read it and read a lot of commentary and analysis on it. It will take me a couple of hours to distill the most salient and acute links and my comments into something a sane person might read so that's for another day soon I hope. This is just an end of day relaxing wind down post off the top of my head or out my other end, sorry.
Meanwhile I have a couple of comments. I've been reading the annual IEA WEO for a decade now and while it has shown signs of converging with reality since 2007 it is still, in many ways, in serious cloud cuckoo land. On its present trend it has a sporting chance of making contact with year ago reality just after peak oil and its consequences has pulled this realty's rug from beneath it (I think that means never).
Why is probably explained somewhat by my post on its whistleblower incident I discussed before:
http://www.transitionblackisle.org/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid...
The most telling picture is one showing what the IEA has forecast for future production in each WEO over the last decade, I will find a link to an instance of it and post it here. Every year their forecast is less optimistic and almost every year reality is running away (down) faster than the IEA's adjustment to reality.
Within the 2010 report is a graph saying where we're going to get future oil from. Before too long a significant proportion is 'yet to be found'. I'm sure Donald Rumsfeld could explain it. I'd be interested in data on how much of the oil we're currently producing was 'yet to be found' 10 years ago, I'd bet it's a LOT less than that which we're relying on 10 years hence.
Up until 2007 I'd struggle to give the IEA's WEO a score of 2/10 for perception of reality. It's improved greatly in the last 3 years, probably worth 4/10 in 2010, let's hope for a 5 in 2011, yay!
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Extreme Veteran
Posts: 319
| Its official. Wikki leaks has shown that the Saudis have deliberately underestimated their oil stocks by about 40% and peak oil is here or will be within the next year or so. Time to redouble our efforts.
See http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/cif-green/2011/feb/10/peak-oi... |
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Member
Posts: 12
| >have deliberately underestimated their oil stocks by about 40%
That's _overestimated_ I think 
Colin |
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Extreme Veteran
Posts: 319
| Looks like oil prices are well and truly on the up now, particularly with the Middle East despots collapsing one by one. |
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World Energy Outlook
