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Agric

Posted 2010-03-27 17:23 (#55)
Subject: Remember the IEA whistleblower story of Nov 2009?

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Well here's some interesting background on how it came about:
http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/437079/how_a_22yearo...

I've dug around a bit but failed to find an online copy of his dissertation. However, here's an article in TOD that seems to be by him in August 2009 exploring peak oil and various govt and agencies' attitudes:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5672

Tom Rogue has some interesting observations and snippets about agency and govt positions, too:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/160123-what-the-iea-doesn-t-want-yo...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/169392-have-we-reached-peak-oil

...like:

'...because of the important decline rates, the world will still be short of “at least” 12.5 MBD before 2015. Asked by a journalist if this means Peak Oil, Dr. [Fatih] Birol [of the IEA] answered, “We are facing a serious threat”. '

“(Steven Chu, US Secretary of Energy) was my boss," Fridley says. "He knows all about peak oil, but he can't talk about it. If the government announced that peak oil was threatening our economy, Wall Street would crash. He just can't say anything about it."

Agric

Posted 2010-03-27 20:52 (#56 - in reply to #55)
Subject: Hmmm, I kept digging

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Posts: 214
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Lionel's dissertation seems to have been available online at TOD in the files section but it looks like he and TOD editors disagreed about some edits they requested in an article he submitted to them - that article might well have been the basis of Tom Rogue's articles. The article was withdrawn as a TOD submission rather than edited, perhaps the dissertation was deleted also, perhaps as a consequence. I suppose I could email TOD and Lionel to find out / ask for a copy.

Meanwhile, there's a TOD article covering the IEA 'whistleblowing' and the IEA 2009 annual report:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5953

and a TOD article giving a background on the IEA and why it may be less than objective:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4780

You might ask how relevent this stuff about the IEA is. Well, they are the pre-eminent agency that OECD countries rely upon for their information and opinion regarding energy and particularly oil. If the IEA says 'peak oil is here' then so will UK govt etc. They publish an annual report every November and since 2008 it has been getting more and more interesting (even to the extent of showing signs of realism), and their warnings more and more strident. I predict that their 2011 or 2012 report will say 'the oil crunch is now', and at that point you will know for sure that my dire prognostications will soon be realised.

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