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Veteran
Posts: 214
| Despite a very late spring maximum that was close to the average over the last 20 years for ice extent it has already declned to very near the 2006 lowest extent for end May:
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/index.html
Their 8th June monthly update suggests that the 2007 summer sea ice extent minimums may be beaten this summer. Near the bottom of the update they mention estimates of Arctic ice volume: "According to PIOMAS, the average Arctic sea ice volume for May 2010 was 19,000 cubic kilometers (4,600 cubic miles), the lowest May volume over the 1979 to 2010 period. May 2010 volume was 42% below the 1979 maximum, and 32% below the 1979 to 2009 May average. The May 2010 ice volume is also 2.5 standard deviations below the 1979 to 2010 linear trend for May (–3,400 cubic kilometers, or -816 cubic miles, per decade)."
The PIOMAS website is here:
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/ArcticSeaiceVolume/IceVolume.php
Ultimately it's the volume of ice that must be melted - its surface extent is a crude and somewhat misleading derivative of the volume - and the volume looks to be falling off a cliff. Some time in the next few years we can expect the summer sea ice extent to fall off a cliff, too.
Another useful polar ice website:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/ |
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Veteran
Posts: 214
| http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2011/030211.html
"While ice extent grew at average rates for February, the overall extent remained anomalously low. Air temperatures over most of the Arctic Ocean were between 2 and 4 degrees Celsius (4 and 7 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than normal. Over the East Greenland Sea and north towards the Pole, air temperatures were 5 to 7 degrees Celsius (9 to 13 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than normal. Colder conditions, 2 to 6 degrees Celsius (4 to 11 degrees Fahrenheit) below average persisted over western Eurasia, east-central Eurasia and some of the Canadian Arctic."
"Reduced sea ice extent and extensive snow cover are not contradictory, and are both linked to a strong negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (see our January 5, 2011 post). A strongly negative AO favors outbreaks of cold Arctic air over northern Europe and the U.S., as many people experienced first-hand these last two winters. Whether this is a trend, or in any way linked to ongoing climate warming in the Arctic, remains to be seen."
Summer 2010 was the third lowest ice extent season recorded in the satellite age, had wind patterns conspired differently it could have been the second lowest or lowest. We're now within a couple of weeks of ice maximum and at the lowest extent for this time of year we've seen. Ice volume continues to fall off its cliff. When we first see a summer ice free arctic is now probably just a function of general wind patterns in the summer season. |
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Extreme Veteran
Posts: 319
| Getting steadily worse. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19244895. The arctic could be ice free in summer within a decade. |
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Regular
Posts: 79
Location: Cromarty | We can't stop it, it is going to happen, we have some idea of what to expect, so we need to think in practical terms about how to adapt ... and try to stop the big oil companies moving in which is already happening. We need a complete change in the way most people see things and let's hope this will offer an opportunity for this to happen before too many people and other living beings suffer |
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Veteran
Posts: 214
| at least 2 weeks before end of melt season. An additional link to my above, Neven's VERY excellent blog which has been my go to on Arctic stuff for 2 years:
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/
It really is roll a six sided die for when the Arctic is summer ice free (probability about 50% it will be by 2016). We don't know what effect that will have on weather patterns. Much depends on how it effects the jet stream, research suggests it might get more stuck in patterns like this summer that brought depressions across central England but left NW Scotland dry. More predictable is the Arctic Oscillation - winds that circle the Arctic - a lower tempeature gradient between Arctic and lower latitudes lets winter cold air leak out south.
I have a miracles post coming soon for potential straws, John |
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Extreme Veteran
Posts: 319
| Looks like we have now reached the ice minimum and and it makes grim reading. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/sep/14/arctic-sea-ice-sm... 2016 is looking increasingly likely for an ice free Arctic. |
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Extreme Veteran
Posts: 319
| The North Pole is now a lake! http://www.livescience.com/38347-north-pole-ice-melt-lake.html
Strangely this real news doesn't seem to have hit the news. Perhaps all the journalists were standing outside a certain hospital waiting for something to happen! |
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Extreme Veteran
Posts: 319
| Apparently the webcam had started at the North pole but then drifted away, so it was not actually over the North Pole when the alarm was raised by these pictures, but still near enough to raise concerns. The arctic ocean is much hotter than it should be, with methane hydrates being released which produce alarming amounts of methane and still about a month to go before the ice reaches it's minimum for the year. http://arctic-news.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/arctic-ocean-is-turning-r... |
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Arctic sea ice declined rapidly in May 2010