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Veteran
Posts: 275
 
| I went down to London last week to the "Ecobuild" trade show, and got a chance to hear Richard Heinberg speak there, essentially trailing his coming book, "The End of Growth". There was a lot of thought-provoking stuff, I thought I'd post a few of the bits that made a particular impression on me. (The talk itself is on Youtube, but it's in about 6 un-sequenced bits, of very variable quality, so I wouldn't recommend them unless you're really keen).
He quoted a study "Searching for a Miracle" available as a pdf from the Post-Carbon Institute website - this was examining replacement energy sources to see if there was anything which would plug the gap left by declining oil reserves. The answer was no! But there's always a chance something may emmerge, the problem then being that it will take several decades to get from promising idea to developed and widely available technology.
Coal currently accounts for 70% of China's energy and 80% of its electricity generation. "No-one knows where the coal's going to come from for China's growth". I'd thought we had enough reserves of coal to last for centuries (setting aside the climate change implications) but from the talk it sounds as if that isn't true if 10% annual growth for China is factored in.
But the most challenging bit was applying Peak Oil (and coal) thinking to the economy. Money is no longer based on anything physical, it's created by the banks - so for every £1,000 people deposit with banks, between £800 and £900 is lent to other people, and this is new money. But, because money is created by lending, it requires growth in order to repay both the capital and interest. So, our whole financial system only works with economic growth. If economic growth is no longer possible because of resource constraints, then everything will fall apart. I'm still not sure what that will look like, rampant inflation seems likely, as more money is created to deal with the lack of growth (sounds a bit like Quantitative Easing doesn't it?). So, we need to reform the monetary system and find a new system which is non-debt based. Local currencies (eg the Totnes pound, and our own Tingle) were suggested, and something called "direct credit clearing", which I'm going to have to look up unless anyone can enlighten me. Thomas Greco was name-checked.
There was some discussion of timescales - RH commented that he thought China's growth would be constrained by resources some time this decade.
The difficult bit is what to do about it all. RH suggested "Imagine a world beyond growth in the best possible scenario, and build a path to get there". This sounds like what we are trying to do, which is encouraging, and indeed the Transition movement got a lot of positive mentions, both from RH and from members of the audience. Something particularly striking was a quote from Milton Friedman, "Only a crisis- actual or perceived – produces real change. When the crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend upon the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes politically inevitable." So, maybe that's our job!
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Veteran
Posts: 214
| This bit is the crux: "If economic growth is no longer possible because of resource constraints, then everything will fall apart."
The sad reality is: this financial system is incapable of changing, it must fail before it can be replaced with something more appropriate to the reality most humans still persist in failing to see. Inevitably there will be extensive turmoil and a significant number of deaths (billions, probably) as part of that process. And then we'll still have to cope with the consequences of our current financial system - resource limtations, still excess population, collapsed globalisation (reversal of the benefits of our exploitation of Liebig's law), climate change.
The first 20 minutes or so of "Zeitgeist: Addendum" does a good job of explaining how our present debt based financial system works:
http://www.zeitgeistmovie.com/
I see there's a new Zeitgeist, not watched that yet. I have the other two in computer watchable for should anyone need.
Just seen the first 6 minutes of the latest, it looks germaine to this discussion.
Totally agree with the importance of your final Friedman quote, we need to devise and try to implement, on a small scale for now, appropriate solutions that can be rolled out when needed. We will be up shit creek but we can, at least, have a few useful paddles up our TBI sleeves.
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Regular
Posts: 80
| Just a few quick things (it's late)
Various previews from "The end of growth" have appear on the Energy Bulletin website over the past week or so. Richard Heinberg is always worth reading.
No single or combination of technologies can replace what fossil fuels have given us, but then is that what want? Is that what Transition is about.
China are building everything they can think of that produces power electricity; Hydro, Coal, Gas, Nuclear, Wind and Solar.
The main problem with coal for China is not the reserves still in the ground, but getting it out and shipping to the power stations. The just don't have the transport infrastructure to keep up with the rate of growth. Also as i'm sure RH would have pointed out, how long the coal reserves will last is based on all the different grades of coal and not just the economically viable good stuff.
Australia exports most of it's coal to China, so it will be interesting to see what effects, if any, proposed carbon taxes in Aus will have.
Milton Friedman's quote sounds alot like John Michael Greer's "Green Wizards". The idea that Transition doesn't have a hope in "converting" enough people in time and that those of us who do "Get it" should prepare as best we can to teach and support the masses when the full extent of all the crises finally hits everyone at once.
Chris Masterson's "Crash Course" is a must for explaining our current economic model. Basically it's a Pyramid scheme. I needs more and more people to borrow more and
more money, for it to survive. If borrowing stops the whole system fails and chaos prevails.
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Veteran
Posts: 275
| Regarding the Milton Friedman quote, there was a similar message from CAT when I was studying there. Paul Allen drew an interesting parallel with the period before the 2nd World War, when politicians appeared to be adopting a conciliatory line with Germany, but much work was going on behind the scenes, e.g. early design work on the Spitfire, to prepare for inevitable war. | |
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The End of Growth and TBI's part in it