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Veteran
Posts: 214
| (I wrote this on 06/02/2011)
World turns, mostly gently for now. Our hard part of winter passed in December, there'll be no more than mild cold tantrums before spring finally rushes at us in a couple of months - after occasional teases meanwhile.
The last year has felt quite unreal to me. Mostly nomadic, almost always enjoyable and free from all but transitory responsibilities. It's been hard for me to shift back into the 'having to do stuff' beyond-the-immediate mode, and I'm not there yet. I know that when 'the time' comes I need to be fresh for the long and draining burst that will demand, but surely I can do a bit more now? Hmmm, troubling that it's being so hard.
I'm part paralysed by the things I need to be doing - too much, too little time, not a dynamic season of the year for me, the overhead of background processing 'what next'. This ramble is partly to unstick me.
The arabian events whiff of the demise of the soviet bloc 20 years ago. I remember being surprised at the pace and enormity of that change, don't thinkthis will be quite as dramatic, but be not deluded - a fundamental (sic) shift has happened which will not be undone. We got lucky 20 years ago, could be hoping too much for us to get lucky this time too.
Increased change makes all possibilities apart from the status quo more probable. Indiscriminately. Be aware of this in your bones.
Commodity prices generally are at new record highs, a contributor to the above I'm sure. Unless OECD economies lurch down commodities are near certain to stay on their uptrend. Oil should not be so bullish, the supply chain is still oversupplied. However, globally we've been producing - probably intentionally - less than we've been consuming for several months. We'll find out this summer whether we can produce to meet demand without further economic recession to dampen it. Grain suppliy is tighter, weather / climate effects are impacting production. We seem to be in a spot similar to 3 years ago. It's easier for the poor to not use oil than not eat, expect increased social upheaval in response to increased food prices.
La Nina's effect have been giving Australia and other parts of the southern hemisphere a hard time. Our cold winters these last 3 years are probably due to the warmer Arctic tweaking the jet stream out of it's usual pattern in this part of the planet. North America has had a big dump of snow this winter, probably for the same reason. Arctic ice extent and volume has been below previous seasonal minima (in the measured satellite age) for the last couple of months. Kamchatka's volcanoes have dumped quite a lot of mess into the atmosphere over the last two years, might have a mild global cooling effect for the next year or so.
So, some ominous trends that we've mostly seen before but no significant storms obviously looming. In about 2 weeks (c.20/02/2011) for about 6 weeks (till c. 04/04/2011) we enter, I feel, another higher risk period. Been trying to work out what the biggest risks are but nothing stands out. Most likely, perhaps, are: intensification of european debt crisis (Spain?) but that risk seems to be waning in short term future; maybe the arabian situation - slow burner, conflagration or fizzle out are all viable possibilities just now, but fizzle out seems least likely. Most likely is something out of the blue. I don't think whatever happens soonish will be an immediate big deal, but that moment does come - probably within 18 months. I don't feel ready, I bet you're not, too.
...Till the landslide brings you down.
('Landslide' Stevie Nicks / Fleetwood Mac)
(24/02/2011) Back in present.
The ramble above did 'unstick me' and I've been a lot more productive over the last 3 weeks. Or perhaps that is more due to extra daylight - we gain about 35 minutes daylight every week for the next couple of months and it really shows.
So, Libya was the happening around 20th February. I expect Gaddafi to exit stage feet first, hopefully he won't shed too much of others' blood in his going but my guess is he will. Oil spiked, Saud promised to pump 9 mbpd (hmmm, 3 years ago they promised to be pumping 12 mbpd in 2012). Libya is a minor oil exporter, producing about 1.6 mbpd of current global 87-ish so it would take several months of total Libyan shutdown to seriously impact global supply - and they'll be needing the money so they'll keep pumping once they get rid of Gaddafi.
Oil price spike is more about contagion risk to other producers. Obviously Saud is the big one but no real sign of it spreading there yet (but was minimal sign of Libya exploding a week ago). My hunch is: watch Syria, if that goes then it could be hard to stop major contagion of arab revolt. Oil prices need to reverse the last week's increase within about 3 months else we'll likely see another period of recession in western economies - if we weren't going to see one anyway. In recent years there's been a tendency for oil prices to peak around the end of March so seasonality favours a price drop.
At the end of 2009 I predicted a year end 2010 oil price (WTI) of $92 and a high of $96 in 2010. The high was about $94, the yearend $91.32. My year ahead guess for end 2011 was $118 with a high of $126 - but I'm switching to using the Brent price rather than WTI because there are reasons for WTI being less representative of global oil prices (I might get around to explaining this someday).
That damned world just quickened its turning a bit. Another 5 weeks of my higher risk period to go, the first week has been more unsettled than I expected, so cross your fingers.
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Veteran
Posts: 214
| Reported today at Marketwatch:
'Spare capacity from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is likely to have dropped below 2 million barrels a day with the developments in Libya, even accounting for Saudi Arabia's boost in production, analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients late Monday. Libya's unrest may have "brought forward the drawdown of OPEC spare capacity by about six months," they said. "While the current loss of supply might turn out to be short-lived as production can be restored relatively quickly once the current civil unrest settles down, the real risk is that the remaining spare capacity cannot accommodate an escalation in disruption right now," they added.'
My comments:
Previously estimates of spare global capacity were 2mbpd to 5.6mbpd, mostly around 5mbpd. Saud pumping about an extra 1mbpd (to 9mbpd) has chopped Goldman's estimate of spare global capacity to 2mbpd - implying reality is at the bottom edge of those estimates - and Goldman have not been notable pessimists on this in the past.
The only way we will find out what the reality of current maximum global oil production might be is to test it to failure (the point at which we are sure more cannot be produced). In the bigger scheme of things it would be best that we discover this sooner rather than later. We might be there already but it will take about 6 months of production shortfall to be sure-ish. My guess of several years ago is it that we hit that point in early summer this year, so we should know (if my guess is right) this year. Expect the price of oil to reach $200bbl by the time wider realisation of real global production limits occurs. | |
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Extreme Veteran
Posts: 319
| Meanwhile Chris Hulme one day says we need to wean ourselves off oil http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/mar/05/oil-uk-energy-source...
Maybe the government has finally 'got it' Yes but we should have done this 30 years ago. What chance now?
Then he's back in the news. -'People are installing renewable energy too fast', 'we're going to run out of the money we allocated'. Better slow things down....If it wasn't so urgent it would be funny. | |
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Veteran
Posts: 214
| Anne, you screwed your link with a . this should work:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/mar/05/oil-uk-energy-source...
The first real signs of UK govt getting it I mentioned here (3rd post onwards " 'Crikey ???!' " ):
http://www.transitionblackisle.org/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid...
...but they are not really taking it seriously yet. Huhne might or might not be, no real signs he is, until I hear the words 'peak oil' from a govt minister I will find it hard to accept they are being honest about reality.
Yeah, that 'too fast' bit is unfunny. Encouraging the populace who can to install microgeneration is the fastest and most cost effective way the govt can increase generating capacity and encourage voluntary reduced consumption. Limiting its funding is a very sick joke.
I rather like my last two paragraphs in the thread mentioned above so I'll quote them just so you are clear about where we're at:
"I guess the essence of what I'm saying is: when what will happen happens it is not a mild earhquake that shakes our lives for a few years, it is a fundamental dislocation of the reality we currently inhabit. Furthermore, we have almost zero skills appropriate to the new reality we'll face (many of us briefly). Can any of us make: soap, candle, screw, nail, knife, axe, saw, plate, cup, needle, thread, rope, planed timber, metal etc... and all the things needed to make those?
Our success, specialisation, technology have created a system we are totally dependent on. Its shattering will expose a fundamental truth: our systems have replaced our previously innate ability to survive, we have un-adapted ourselves, with consequences you should be able to see by now but, if not, will have the pleasure of experiencing before long." | |
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Veteran
Posts: 214
| "A major environmental event happens in Japan in early June, probably a problem with a nuclear reactor, perhaps in part due to an earthquake."
Sounds a pretty good prediction, but I made it in Dec 2004 to happen in June 2005, LOL:
http://theslide.blogspot.com/2006/01/2005-predictions-assessed.html
I should be revising my potato list for the market Saturday and finishing my proof read of GN Manual but my head won't let me till I've done this.
I have this problem with time. I know it's not what it seems to be but my problem is additional to that. Let's say you could travel through time like space, you'd think that a constant (time dimension) velocity moved you equal distances on the time dimension in equal time intervals. Well I'm pretty sure it doesn't. My hunch is some things distort the time aspect of future reality (which I'm pretty sure is probablistic rather than fixed), or do they distort the perceiver? dunno.
Not an excuse for me being near 6 years too early on the old prediction (and it was this event, I'm pretty sure), just an attempt to superficially explain how tricksy this time thing is. So, what next?
I think / hope / feel the worst might be over for this risk period but there is probably one last punch to go before we get a brief period of stability. Another serious earthquake, not directly related to the Japan one of a week ago?, is a possibility in about a week. Libya is no longer a significant direct threat to the future (but I still think Gaddafi is terminated). Bahrain and the probably foolish Saud involvement in it might go bang. Yemen could implode but with minimal probable external effect. I have a so far unsubstantiated feeling that Syria is key in what happens next in Mid East, but probably not just yet. Eurodebt: Portugal got downgraded but Spain flogged a chunk of bonds better than expected, no clear heads-up there. US$ keeps dropping despite the (smallish) drop in stocks, this will be an issue if it drops 1% more - below 2010 lows - since next stop is 5% further down at all time lows. Oil seems to be putting in a floor at Brent $110, WTI $98, return to recession is probable if those hold for long, we need a summer drop in oil prices and I think we'll get a 10% one, barely enough. QE2 expires in 2.5 months, dare the US have a QE3? dare it not? how does that end?
So, we get to mid April in one piece, how long relative stability? Dunno, need to get there first, can't see past this turmoil yet and will need a decent spell of quiet focus then to attempt to do so. But I think between 3 and 6 months at first glance. Everything is weakened compared with 3 or 4 years ago, 'tis thin ice now, before too long we'll have to breathe softly to avoid it cracking.
Meanwhile we have much to do! | |
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Veteran
Posts: 214
| Syria is happening, if it goes soonish then all bets may be off / paradigm shift. Major earthquake near Burma / Thai / Vietnam borders, not directly associated with the Japanese one of a couple of weeks ago:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12852237
...but I don't think this is the one I was expecting, there could be another in the next week. Eurodebt problems resurfacing, US$ still too weak for comfort.
It would be better if these things were not happening as expected. Much better. Not good that I should be right about them now. We REALLY need to get through the next 10-ish days with things at least no more unstable than they are now, then, perhaps, we could get that breather I'm hoping for. If not, there is a serious risk that the next leg down happens imminently. | |
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Veteran
Posts: 214
| We got to here, now, OK. No serious third punch in my higher risk period, things have quietened quite a bit in the last couple of weeks, enjoy the break and breathe easier.
I honestly have no good feel for how long this relatively quiet spell will persist but my first tentative glance suggests things should be fairly OK until end of June at least - not that that's any guarantee. Several obvious risks continue to bubble: Mid-East revolt, commodity prices, eurodebt, US$ weakness, but none of those really look like exploding too painfully in the imminent future (2 to 3 months).
Markets are at an interesting juncture just now. In the last couple of days it's starting to look like stocks and commodities are rolling over and beginning a downtrend. Oil (Brent) has already touched my $126 target for the year so if the rest of this year is quiet mixed with a return of recession then I'll have amazingly nailed it within $1 again (but I expect that $126 to be eclipsed). Corn has gone bonkers since the USDA released their crop forecasts on 31/3/2011 - despite about the biggest acreage since 1945 - and dragged other grain commodity prices with it, the corn ethanol thing is seriously bad. World grain stocks' situation is also very bad, may be worse than 2007/8 later this year.
If those asset classes roll over one would expect US$ to rise. Surely. Well, maybe not; technically it looks like it should weaken further from its current 2.5 year low (DXY index, other measures paint it even worse). If so we have a bit of a problem: a breakdown of the strong negative correlation between commodity and stock prices with US$ probably indicates a phase change, and that change is unlikely to be for the better.
So, stock and commodity assets to generally decline in price (10%+) over the next few months; US$ I know not, could be up or down 5%, I'll bet on down but it's a close call with immense implications.
The really big predictable markets' event of the next few months is the ending of US QE2 in June. Will the Fed have a QE3 or will they suck the excess liquidity out? My bet is they will not have a formal QE3 with targets but they will keep the option of continuing current measures without pre-announced quantified amounts. I'd guess the markets will have a mild tizzy about that but respond generally positively once they get out of their initial sulk. If so, the question then becomes: how long can the US keep printing money to buy its own debt (since nearly all other 'real' buyers are evaporating fast), and what happens when it can't?
Another interesting and related set of guesses is when do central banks start increasing interest rates? Euro's ECB added their first 0.25% for 2+ years last week (making it 1.25%). UK current markets' guess is August, US October or later, but those bets could move 3 months either way on changes in economic news.
So much for the fairly predictables. Odds are something out of the blue will perturb the pond and make a nice mess of those assessments. | |
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Veteran
Posts: 214
| Back in February 2006 I posted an article (it even got syndicated on other blogs) about the US monetizing its debt covertly:
http://theslide.blogspot.com/2006/02/fiscal-aside-rotting-prawns-in...
I mention it now because we are nearing the end of QE2 and it is near impossible that there will not be some continuation of that process else the present financial market delusion may collapse.
My point is: an overt QE is not necessary, up to some point it can be done covertly and has been for 5+ years. Back 5 years ago almost no one - including me - would have believed that any country could perform monetization of its debt on the scale we've seen without severe consequences. But they have and the markets have swallowed it. My explanation is simple: faced with the choice between accepting that or facing the demise of the system that keeps them lucratively employed they voted with their wallets, and compromised all their economic understanding.
Be clear: what has been done with debt monetization, piled upon derivatives growth, especially in USA, is more than ample to destroy our monetary system, the only question now is how and when the process unwinds.
So, the overt QE2 will likely be superceeded by a more covert QE, Jim Puplava over at Financial Sense nicely calls it QE2.5, that can only work for so long before the stench prompts retching. But the markets seem to have little sense of smell, the rot might infect most of our financial system before they notice and then, perhaps, there will be naught left but a putrified mess. What we once knew as money will be less than pus. | |
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Veteran
Posts: 214
| So, Osama bin Laden finally killed it seems. A bit early to perceive if it changes future probabilities much, but should have minimal effects. My one nagging doubt is that I saw a US holiday (Independence Day or Thanksgiving, felt like the former) when the US was in stunned, self-reflective, sadness. It seemed close in time to the Japanese environmental incident so could be this year.
Last week Ben Bernanke (US Fed Reserve chairman) confirmed QE 2.5 once QE 2 ends this June. That should placate markets in the short term. Will it provide enough money to buy US bonds into the medium term future? Probably not, so interest rates will have to go up to keep them US govt bonds selling. I'm beginning to feel that autumn 2012 - about next US presidential election - is the approximate upper limit (latest) that this financial system can remain functional, though it could, of course, die sooner.
Jimmy Carter authorised a similar operation to this Obama one in the third year of his first term. It failed. Had it succeeded Carter rather than Reagan would have been elected. On such minor things worlds turn. And will again. | |
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Veteran
Posts: 214
| It may be that most of the speculative money has been shaken out of the hot commodities in just one week, here are some of the significant declines:
Gold -4.2%
Silver -27% (biggest weekly drop for 30 years)
Oil -15%
Copper -4.8%
Or it may be they have further to fall. Oil is now at my first significant support level (WTI $98, Brent $110), a break lower implies a further 10% drop.
Meanwhile stocks have only fallen less than 2% this week, and US$ has recovered from below 73% on DXY index to near 75%.
Have commodities, stocks put in a significant top? Is the US$ beginning a significant recovery? My guess is yes, but I think the US$ upside and commodities downside will be quite limited. Stocks are mostly away with the faeries but, despite that, will likely lose 10% + soonish.
Reports that Greece might exit the euro from Der Spiegel:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,761201,00.html
(more likely posturing for a debt restructuring (= not paying all they owe) methinks, but significant).
Some of today's excitement was about US NFP whose headline figure was more positive than expected. The sadder reality is explained very well by Mish (who's an outstanding analyst / commentator):
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/michael-shedlock/jobs-re...
All in all a fairly fun week, especially for the SNP, less so for LibDems and AV supporters.
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Veteran
Posts: 214
| All is mostly quiet / as expected on the various fronts.
Yemen continues its probable drift into civil war; Libya continues its clear one - the mighty West, though denying that intent, continues to fail to kill Gaddafi; Syria simmers.
Greece's insolvency becomes more evident, another stage of its refinancing is needed / planned by end of June (it needs to borrow a lot of money in July). The end of QE2 looms, helicopter Ben has been pretty clear that a QE3 lite is planned (mostly covert-ish continued buying of US debt).
Stocks peaked at the beginning of May, a couple of weeks after I said I thought they were rolling over, I seem cursed with calling them a tad prematurely. I'm pretty sure that's the top for a while, hard to see circumstances in the next 6 months at least which would help them better that. Commodities have been more resilient, oil has observed my support levels well (WTI $98, Brent $110), grains and metals have about held position.
Last week's US econodata was bad, just about everything significantly worse than the pundits expected even a few days before. I don't think it's going to improve so I'll have my initial 10% drop in stocks now, thank you. That will take them down to Nov 2010 levels and mess some pants, then we'll see if they are going to drop seriously.
US$ rallied to 76% on its DXY index but has since dropped back below 75%, I still don't know if it's going to threaten 70% or 80% next. It's inverse correlation with stocks looks ominously inconsistent recently.
I thought there was a good chance (50/50) of some commodities (oil, gold, silver, copper, wheat) dropping further in the last few weeks. That they didn't suggests - to me - a subtly growing distrust of US$ specifically and currencies generally. No doubt they will be temporarily taken down a bit when stocks get hit.
Getting specific, I expect a 10% drop in stocks over June - I think timing has crystalised quite well on that now - with commodities taken down mostly by 5 to 10% more temporarily in sympathy. Thereafter I expect stocks to decline further but commodities to recover (sometime in July could be a very good time to buy commodities). US$ should rally to maybe even 78% on DXY then drop to 72% (over next 3 to 6 months) before deciding what to do next.
Probable truth is: this financial system is on its last legs but won't discover that till it falls flat on its face. Could be 1 month away or 18 months away, longer would be great luck.
On the non-economic front I expect something significant to happen at the end of June / first couple of days in July. It's something odd, unexpected, probably not hugely materially significant of itself but like a partial major, and sad, change in perception. A woe. I think it particularly affects the USA. The effects could be profound or ephemeral, not sure yet, but it feels like something fundamental could change. For something this close, and may be probable, in time it is surprisingly confusing, disturbs some aspects of reality but leaves others untouched. Something symbolic? A significant death / assasination? A major San Francisco earthquake that kills a handful? A surprise US East coast hurricane? An attack on some major US symbol? Dunno, those are wild guesses that might fit. Or nothing may happen, the future is only probable. | |
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Extreme Veteran
Posts: 319
| Well you had your East Coast Hurricane. What now? | |
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Veteran
Posts: 214
| The markets spat in my face the last week of June with a 5% blip up instead of the logical continuation down which would have nicely made my 10% June drop. Didn't have to wait long for revenge though, this quarter since has been the worst since the late 2008 crash or longer: -15% for US and UK stocks, 25% for France and Germany, about that or more for many others.
June's was an aberrant quarter end, dismissing reality which has consistently pointed towards probable recession in many countries (including UK and US) commencing late 2011 / early 2012. September's has been much more sober and realistic in the markets, presaging our next critical moment as phase 2 of financial unwinding develops. The ECRI has very recently said the US is presently entering recession:
http://www.businesscycle.com/reports_indexes/reportsummarydetails/1...
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-puplava/2011/09/23...
On Monday 3rd October US stocks broke through significant support which has held - as I expected, as is the timing of this break down - since the initial significant drop in July. If that break is consolidated a further drop (from Monday's closing levels) of 8% over the next month or so is likely and I guess will happen over the next 4 weeks. That would make a 25% to 35% fall since the end April 2011 top and more is distinctly possible.
Protests against the financial system in the US grow in New York and are spreading to other locii ('Occupy Wall Street' etc), whether the result will be good or ill remains to be seen but there is a fair chance this is the beginning of something as important as the Tea Party has become:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/occupy-wall-street-is-a-tea-party-...
http://occupywallst.org/
http://occupywallst.org/forum/first-official-release-from-occupy-wa...
The pillars of our present financial system are now out of bullets. Two perceptive observers that I greatly respect, Richard Heinberg and Mish (Mike Shedlock), have publically said so in the last week:
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/michael-shedlock/2011/09...
http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/in-depth/201...
Ben Bernanke knows it and subtly stated so last week when talking about 'operation twist' that the US Fed plans for shoring up the system:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/twist-again-bens-political-master-...
I was counting Fed bullets back in early 2008 in my 'All Along the Watchtower' thread, worth reading as a contemporaneous (and quite prescient) commentary:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/tuephoenix/message/139
...they've conjured more than I expected, but unless they know magic beyond my ken they're about out of ammo, any new weapons they try to use are as likely to explode in our faces now - and some they've used already may yet. We are at a probable early cusp in phase 2 of collapse, it could be soon and sudden or (much more likely) merely a lurch down before a couple more. But the cards are close to all dealt, just waiting to be turned. If I chose tarot cards to represent the present situation it would be the tower crossed by the juggler (fool).
I expect significant developments by late Oct 2011 so will start a new thread explaining where we're at and how we got here (and where we might be going, of course), hopefully before too much more happens.
You would be wise to keep a 2 week stock of necessary food, fuel, medicine etc supplies on hand starting now, it can be dashed annoying when the sheeple start panic buying (nothing worse is threatened for now). Maybe we should plan for "Agric's Big Fright Night" about a week into November.
The above was written 3rd night and 4th morning October. As I post, on Oct 4th evening just after the US close, we have a miraculous near 4% rebound in the last hour taking stocks from -2% to +2%, back to the support they broke through yesterday. Don't expect that support to hold now, though.
Most US financial stocks including ma Goldman and J P Morgan Chase are down 50% in the last 6 months. Dexia SA - a Franco-Belgian bank / lender which passed the EU 'stress tests' earlier this summer with flying colours but with a business model too like Northern Rock's was, a loan / deposit ratio of 2.5, and 80% of its assets in at risk sovereign debts (Greece, Italy), today looks to be insolvent, boding ill for swathes of the european banking / financial system.
The financial system is back in its bomb defusal state that we saw in March 2008 and Sept 2008-Feb 2009; this time the bombs could easily start a systemic chain reaction if a big one blows. | |
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Regular
Posts: 63
| Did you spot that the UK Industry Task Force on Peak Oil (Virgin, Stagecoach and others) seem to have persuaded the governement to produce a National Peak Oil Contingency Plan flollowing a meeting with Chris Huhne in May this year. The comments following the report are interesting.
http://peakoiltaskforce.net/http:/peakoil.solarcentury.com/governme...
Penny | |
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Extreme Veteran
Posts: 319
| Not before time. Apparently half the fuel used in the UK is for food transport, so more local food could make a big impact on the amount consumed but it looks like we just don't have enough land to grow the food we need for the current population with current consumption patterns never mind that predicted by 2050. Currently we're using the equivalent of 4 times the UK in 'virtual land'. What happens when the oil price rises even higher? Better get digging! | |
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Regular
Posts: 79
Location: Cromarty | Actually we have plenty of land. The problem is the way we use it. Huge areas of monoculture barley for the brewing and whisky industries; oilseed rape for biodiesel and cattle feed, never mind the sugar beet and the opium poppies growing in Oxfordshire...
The answers are really quite simple:
1. We aim to change consumption patterns by encouraging everyone to really think about the suffering and environmental damage their consumption causes, to cut their alcohol, meat and dairy intake and have at least one vegetarian day and one alcohol free day a week (that would have other benefits too).
2 Revise the CAP to encourage farmers to grow genuine local food for local people, or let their land to those who will. Break up the big farms and create more, smaller scale units
John | |
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Mirror in the sky...